Why past performance is no guide to the future

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Expert Advice with John Lindeman

When it comes to the property market, many experts assure us that past performance is the best indicator of future performance. But if we actually look at how they use past performance to make their forecasts, we immediately come across a huge contradiction.

Only buy in areas that have stood the test of time
One group of experts claim that we should only buy properties in suburbs that have “stood the test of time”.

They say that their high performance in the past offers us not only the greatest level of security, but the best prospects of continued price growth into the future. This is based purely on the expectation that high past performance predicts future performance. 

Seems logical, except that there are many suburbs and towns where housing markets have boomed for years, only to crash without warning. In fact, every boom has ended at some time, even if prices haven’t crashed. The expectation that growth will continue in the future in some suburbs purely because it has in the past ignores the continual changes in population, purchasing power and affordability that occur in our all housing markets. High past performance is a good result for property owners in such areas, but is no guide to their future performance.    
Only buy in areas that are overdue for growth
The other group of “past performance” experts use past performance in the opposite way. They rely on the absence of past performance to pinpoint areas that are “overdue for growth”. They identify suburbs, towns and even cities where prices have not risen for years and then claim that such markets are due for a catch up to those locations where high growth has occurred.

This ignores the fact that demand may have dropped in such areas, or that there have been huge housing developments causing oversupplies and that either or both situations keep prices subdued. We have seen such experts predicting the imminent boom of Brisbane’s housing market every year from 2013 onwards, based purely on the fact that growth hasn’t occurred. 


The issue for us is that while both experts use past performance to justify their predictions, one group looks for areas with high past performance to find potential boom markets, while the other searches for areas with little or no past performance to do exactly the same.
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John Lindeman is widely respected as one of Australia's leading property market analysts, authors and commentators.
Visit Lindeman Reports for more information.
He has well over fifteen years’ experience researching the nature and dynamics of the housing market at major data analysts.
John’s monthly column on housing market research featured in Australian Property Investor Magazine for over five years. He is a regular contributor to Your Investment Property Magazine and other property investment publications and e-newsletters such as Kevin Turners Real Estate Talk, Michael Yardney’s Property Update and Alan Kohler’s Eureka Report.
John also authored the landmark books for property investors, Mastering the Australian Housing Market, and Unlocking the Property Market, both published by Wileys.

To read more articles by John Lindeman, click here

Disclaimer: while due care is taken, the viewpoints expressed by contributors do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Your Investment Property.

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