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Roxby Downs - Food for thought

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angel | 16 Oct 2014, 11:36 AM Agree 0
Roxby Downs - food for thought.

Since BHPs announcement in 2012 that they would put the Olympic Dam expansion on hold, the market in Roxby has taken a big hit.

Things spiraled as there was plenty of negative commentary/spin and ill-informed headlines in the media. Speculation from the punters was rife – everyone was understandably spooked and investors fleed.

The correction hit Roxby hard.

BHP went from building around 20% more new home in Roxby Downs to accommodate the anticipated new workforce for the expansion prior to the announcement. After the announcement, around 200+ jobs were axed from Olympic Dam.

Much more houses, much less people.

For property prices, it was a double whammy:
1. a massive loss of confidence (speculation rife…will BHP pull out all together and close the mine?!?!), and
2. a huge inequity in the supply demand ratio

The number of rental properties in the market increased 6 fold, from 22 to 118. The average rental price for a 3B1B house dropped from $650/w to $300/w.

Property sale prices dropped 30%+. The turnover of house sales almost stopped. Properties that used to fetch $500k are now worth around $350k.

Investors are a large portion of property sales in Roxby. If they are interested, everything turns (and quickly), if not, everything stalls and quickly.

Two years later and where is Roxby at?
Given the poor yield equation at the moment and the perceived lack of certainty from BHP, investors are sitting on the sidelines, or looking elsewhere.

The supply/demand ratio and confidence in the community have been quietly improving:
o Properties on the rental market have gone from a high of 118 houses available in Roxby now down to around 40-50. There has been a 50% decline in rental house in less than 9 months. Once this hits sub 30, things will get very interesting.
o Rental prices have plateud a few months ago and are now start to see a slight up kick of plus 10% in the past month.
o BHP recently announced record results in Olympic Dam with more production than ever before at lower costs. The mine productivity gains have been strong.
o BHP announce they will be including Olympic Dam in their main “tier 1” company (not pushing it into the NEWCO group for lower priority mines).
o In Aug 2014, BHP announce they have found a new approach to mine the Olympic Dam ore (heaped leaching) which enables them to stage an expansion and maximise the output from the ore (keep in mind that the $30b expansion spooked all major BHP shareholders – too high risk for such high cost – this is a scalable shareholder solution)
o Aust Government fast track approvals BHP request to conduct larger scale heaped leaching trials at Olympic Dam to commence in 2016. No EIS required.
o More jobs are slowly coming back (which is resulting in the reduction in avail rentals).
o Banks stopped lending money for home purchases in Roxby but now the purse strings have loosened slightly. Once more certain announcements are made this will loosen further.

Investing in Roxby – the future of house prices and yields?

If history is anything to go by, once the available rentals in the market drop below 25, the supply/demand effect will start translating into rental price increases. Yields will be on a strong improve, with real possibility of achieving short term cashflow positive investments.

But what about the likelihood of capital gains longer term? Investors will likely want to have more certainty about BHP longer term plans before they get off the sideline.

This may be coming…

BHP is holding its annual general meeting in Adelaide on 20 November 2014. This is the first time in many years BHP have held it in Adelaide.
2013 – Perth
2012 – Sydney
2011 – Melbourne
2010 – Perth
2009 – Brisbane
2008 – Melbourne
(I couldn’t find any record before this date)

There is likely a reason for this.

BHP will likely provide more updates about its plans regarding Olympic Dam.

Even if this is simply to say they are planning a gradual expansion post the new heaped leaching trial (albeit much slower), this will be very positive on the market. Any plan will provide more certainty, then no plan. With this comes more positive headlines, greater investor awareness, more jobs and more confidence in the market.

Investors will have more confidence to invest for not only yields but also longer term capital gains.

The time to invest in Roxby Downs may have never been better.

Watch this space.
  • Angela | 18 Jul 2015, 09:00 PM Agree 0
    hello, we have a house in Roxby and have just rolled with the punches in hope that Roxby will come back again. its nice to read your positive feed back. we were wondering if it would be the right time to finish of our place by putting in landscaping and a double garage and maybe even a deck? we lived and worked in Roxby for many years and we got our land through BHP as a progression from living in camp then into a BHP private rental arrangement then we got the land and built. We thought was a no brainer to build an on site transportable to live in and just quietly thought if any thing does go wrong we would transport the building to another site. would that be a viable proposition/
  • Grant tracy | 09 Jul 2017, 10:04 AM Agree 0
    Don't spend the money. We have a property in Roxby and got hammered as well.
    Remember on thing it is pretty much a one horse town. A few positive s are good but I wouldn't spend a cent u til rents return to their original am average and capital growth in the housing sales goes to a out 15 ~ 20 per cent.
    The last boom was the biggest in Oz history so I wouldn't use that as an average. Its a boom bust economy in a mining town.
    Our approach after buying near the park is wait until the next boom; weather the storm as you have done and then we get a good gain of 30~ 59 % improvement..Get the hell out of Dodge City. 5 years of negative returns have to be taken into account if you are going g to sell
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