Are the banks' property "forecasts" accurate?

By YIP | 15 Jul 2020

In this important episode of YIP Talk, our host Sarah Megginson is joined by Simon Buckingham, director and results coach with Results Mentoring.

Megginson and Buckingham discuss the current landscape and what investors need to know to better forecast where we are heading – which all begins with making sure you’re listening to the right experts from the outset.

“I think now more than ever, we need to be looking to experts that have some real runs on the boards so to speak,” explains Megginson, long-standing editor of Your Investment Property and Your Mortage.

“We need to look at what has happened historically to give us a sense of calm or a sense of understanding – as you can’t really control what’s going on, but you can become clear on what might be happening next.”

In this podcast, Megginson and Buckingham chat about the forecasting that’s happening at the moment.

Various banks and economists have come out with their predictions and forecasts, which range from predictions that property prices will fall 5 to 10% as a result of the coronavirus impact, right up to 30% or even 50% price falls.

“It seems like every bank has unleashed their economists on the media to give their forecasts of where they think property markets are headed, and there’s some pretty scary numbers being thrown about there,” Megginson says.

Adds Buckingham, “It’s quite extraordinary to see that sort of a range and one thing you know for sure is they can’t all be right. If someone has to be right, then someone has the right to be wrong in these forecasts – but why are they so different?”

Furthermore, how much weight should we be giving these forecasts? Are they accurate – and who do we work out who to listen to and who to ignore?

“I think it’s more important than ever for property investors to be well-informed at the moment and it can be difficult to tell facts from fiction or certainly fact from opinion,” explains Buckingham.

“We are bombarded by plenty of scary and attention-grabbing headlines, what we’d call click bait I guess, but the more alarmist the headline is, the more attention it will grab and the more of course, we get exposed to the advertising of the around the media channel that’s put that forward.”

He adds that over the years that he’s been investing and mentoring hundreds of people about investing in real estate, it’s “taught me a lot about the property market over those years and what makes the property market tick. What is it that really drives it?”

Whilst no one has a crystal ball and no one can know precisely what the market’s going to do in six months, 12 months or 24 months, it is possible to make reasoned assumptions based on available data, information, statistics and training – which is what this podcast digs into. Listen here!

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