Impeded home price growth recorded in regions

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Last week, CoreLogic Head of Research Tim Lawless delved into market data examining the shifting values over the past year outside of capital cities. From there, he found a slowdown in regional dwelling value growth.

The study revealed that, overall, regional dwelling values logged a 1.6% capital increased over the twelve months ending August this year. However the pace of growth has slowed, and, more importantly, the 1.6% increase was the slowest annual growth rate recorded since September 2013.

Over the last 12 months, dwelling values across the non-capital city markets of every state also hiked except Western Australia – which saw a 4.4% decline.

Looking into regional New South Wales (NSW), which was up by 1.4%, Lawless noted that its value growth is the slowest it has been since April 2013. On the contrary, regional Tasmania’s (TAS) 8% annual gain is the strongest it has been since March 2010.

Digging deeper, trends for sub-regions’ market conditions vary.  Of the 42 regional Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) regions, 24 saw an improvement in dwelling values over the past year with the remaining 18 recording a fall. Geelong, which was up by 11.8%, was the only region to record double-digit growth. Tasmania’s South East (9.9%) and Launceston / North East Tasmania (9.3%), on the other hand, were the only two others to record growth in excess of 7.5%.

“Of those regions that have recorded growth over the year, nine are in NSW, five are in Vic, three are in QLD, two are in SA, one is in Western Australia (WA), three are in TAS and one is in Northern Territory (NT),” Lawless explained.

“Central Queensland (-7.7%) had recorded the largest value fall over the year followed by Bunbury I WA and Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday (both 5.4%). Unsurprisingly, WA along with Queensland (QLD), dominates the list of regional areas in which values have fallen the most over the past year.”

Lawless also took the time to assess the price movement in different regions depending on the sector near to them.  Those areas linked to the resources sector have continued to record value falls over the past year. With exceptions such as Mid North Coast, Illawarra, and Toowoomba, lifestyle markets and those close to capital cities have seen values grow. 

The quarterly figures also support the idea that regional housing market conditions were worsening over the recent months, as the number of regions recording value drops over the quarter was larger than the number recording a fall over the year.

What does the slowdown in regional dwelling value growth imply? Data from the latest CoreLogic home value index suggested that the national market has become slightly pervasive in other areas.

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Comments
  • Jim Mullins says on 19/09/2018 09:32:22 PM

    Obviously Orange NSW is bucking the trend. Sale prices have increased and the vacancy rate for rental properties is below 2%.

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