Property values to hit annual rough patch

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If past trends are anything to go by, strong property price growth over the first quarter of 2013 is unlikely to last into the rest of the year, RP Data has said.

According to the company’s research, property growth has experienced the strongest rates of capital appreciation during the first quarter of the year on 10 of the last 17 years.

This highlights the property market's highly seasonal nature, which RP Data research analyst Cameron Kusher forecasts to continue.

Reflecting on the 2.8% value growth recorded over the first quarter of 2013, Kusher said that such a rate would be hard to maintain.

“If the growth rate continued at this level for the remainder of the calendar year, it would represent a rise in capital city dwelling values of 11.2%. However, if history is anything to go by, this rate is unlikely to continue.”

“It’s important to remember that Australia’s national housing market is highly seasonal with values seeing a greater level of quarterly growth over the first and third quarters of the year and with growth typically lower over the second and final quarters.”

Kusher explained that the first quarter of the years between 1996 and 2012 recorded the strongest rates of capital appreciation in dwelling values across 10 of the 17 years. In years when the first quarter did not record the highest value growth it was superseded by third quarter growth.

Further analysis shows that the second quarter of the year recorded the weakest capital growth conditions on four occasions over the period. On all other occasions, the fourth quarter experienced the lowest growth in values.

Kusher added that he has never seen the second and fourth quarters record a greater increase in value than that of the first quarter.  

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