November rate cut a possibility

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Business conditions hovered at four-year lows in July as confidence slumped to an eight-month dip, according to NAB’s Monthly Business Survey, July 2013 – and business credit continues to be a significant area of contention.

A falling Australian dollar and the ‘lure of lower interest rates’ proved unable to improve business confidence levels, which reached their lowest point since November, 2012.

The major lender said it’s likely the weakness in business activity and profitability is the key driver of weaker confidence – though it’s also possible that uncertainty over the timing of the Federal election kept businesses wary during the month, as the survey was conducted prior to the election being called.

As a result of the findings, NAB predicts another rate cut as early as November and said ‘more cuts may follow’.

“We remain a touch more bearish than recently revised forecasts from the government and the RBA.”

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