One more rate rise in 2010

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Industry commentators believe there will only be one more interest rate rise this year - but do not agree when that might happen.

RP Data's senior research analyst, Cameron Kusher, believes we could see an increase next month.

"The futures markets are pricing in no real change until the end of the year," he said. "However, depending on the inflation data due to be published at the end of the month, it's possible we could see rates go up by another 25 basis points as soon as August."

Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel's senior economist, thinks the Reserve Bank will "sit on its hands" until November or December.

"Having raised the cash rate to what it calls a neutral position, the RBA will need a good reason to make it a contractory rate," Robinson commented. "It knows the inflationary figures are going to be high, but it'll be looking for the underlying rate to be drifting down, and we expect it to be there or thereabouts."

Robinson said while the RBA might be concerned about the strong employment figures released this week, that might be tempered by the fact that growth is not yet being reflected in consumer spending."

"It's a wait and see game from here on in," he concluded.

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