Where are property prices set to rise?

By Robin Christie | 27 Apr 2012

New mortgage enquiry data suggests that the property markets are about to turn in some parts of the country. But which states are ahead of the pack? Read on to find out.

In good news for investors who have been keenly waiting for signs that the property market is set to turn, mortgage enquiries have increased for the first time in eight quarters, according to recently released data.

Veda’s Quarterly Consumer Credit Demand Index for the March 2012 quarter recorded a 1.5% year-on-year increase in mortgage enquiries nationwide, and this could be a key indicator that things are looking up in the property market, said Veda head of consumer risk Angus Luffman.

“Turning points in mortgage enquiries usually occur one to three quarters ahead of turning points in house prices – an early warning sign which could indicate that, after a continued decline, mortgage enquiries may have bottomed out,” he said.

“Veda mortgage enquiries are closely related to the number of housing finance approvals, so this is a trend to watch – particularly if you are hoping for a future pickup in house prices.”

Signs of house price growth are better in some states than others, however. Queensland proved to be the clear frontrunner on the mortgage enquiry front on a year-on-year basis, showing an increase of 10.2%. The Northern Territory (9.7%) and WA (6.6%) also showed significant year-on-year increases.

On a quarterly basis, WA leads the pack with its mortgage enquiry increase of 7.6%. Once again, Queensland (4.4%) and NT (4%) make the top three.

The worst performer on a year-on-year basis was Tasmania (-8.7%), followed by South Australia (-3.2%) and NSW (-0.7%). On a quarter-on-quarter basis NSW was by far the worst performer, recording a decrease in mortgage enquiries of -7.6%. This, however, may be a hangover from the increase in mortgage demand that was seen in NSW at the end of 2011 as first homebuyers rushed to pick up a property before stamp duty exemptions for existing properties were abolished.




% Year on Year (Q1 2012 vs Q1 2011)

% Quarter on Quarter (Q1 2012 vs Q4 2011)

























Source: Veda Quarterly Consumer Credit Demand Index, Jan-March 2012

Has the property market started to turn a corner in some parts of the country? Join the debate on our property investment forum.

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