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25 suburbs where prices could drop

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Your Investment Property | 28 Mar 2013, 10:22 AM Agree 0
An oversupply of properties for sale could spell doom for property prices in markets such as Tamworth, Bathurst, Merinda and a host of others, according to newly released figures
  • Matt Clifton | 02 Apr 2013, 03:18 PM Agree 0
    I note with interest your article '25 properties where prices will drop'. Whilst I can not comment on all suburbs listed in your report, I am actively involved in the property industry in Bathurst and am therefore in a good position to comment on that market.
    According to the Data used in your report Bathurst has less than 5000 houses of which 410 are on the market. In actual fact Bathurst has around 11,000 houses which means that the listings as a % of all properties is actually under 4%.
    Additionally it is my experience over many years that Bathurst, and perhaps other Regional Centres, holds much higher stock levels than in the Capital Cities.
    Contrary to the comments in your report, we are currently experiencing a shortage in stock in most price ranges but in particular, properties under $400,000.
    With regard to median prices, We beleive that the median price for Bathurst is currently around the $320,000 mark.
    I believe that your report may be misleading to property owners and potential investors alike and it is my opinion that prices will remain firm with the likelihood of a slight rise.
  • Uzzie | 03 Apr 2013, 06:32 PM Agree 0
    Matt, I think the stats are for central Bathurst, not for the whole city. Could be wrong, but seems about right to me
  • Jeremy Sheppard | 04 Apr 2013, 04:06 PM Agree 0
    The ABS 2011 census shows 11,662 separate houses in the Bathurst LGA. However, an LGA is comprised of one or more post codes and a post code can contain one or more suburbs (or "localities" as Australia Post prefers to call them).

    The DSR data was based at the suburb/locality level, not the LGA level, not even at the post code level. The suburb of Bathurst is just one of 94 "localities" within the post code 2795. So although Bathurst the LGA does have around 11,000 houses, Bathurst the suburb does not, it contains a lot less.

    I checked the demand to supply ratio for Bathurst houses recently, for March 2013. The DSR score was 13 out of a total of 48. This gives it a rating of "Poor" and places it in the 94th percentile for the country when ranked by DSR score.

    The days on market is 176, discounting is at 7.7%, auction clearance rates are at 46%, vacancy is at 2.93%, SOM% is just under 8% now, online search interest is at a very low 3.2. The only positive is the yield at 5.8% which is really quite good for houses.

    In Matt's defence however, the statistical reliability figure for the DSR for March was 4.5 out of 8. Since 4 is the minimum SR cut-off point, Bathurst houses only just got into the published data. So, it is possible that Matt's prediction of slight rises in house prices could result in the coming year. Time will tell.
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