Victoria is poised to achieve a new record for constructions starts in the next coming months, beating the previous peak achieved in 2018, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA).

Detached housing starts in Victoria are set to reach 45,000 in September 2021. This is almost 17% higher than the record in 2018.

“This large volume of work will ensure that the industry remains very active through until at least the second half of 2022,” said Fiona Nield, executive director at the HIA.

This builds on the surge in building approvals in the state during the first three months of the year. During the quarter, detached dwelling approvals increased by 36.1% annually.

"We anticipate a record volume of building work will commence this year, and into 2022, with more than 40,000 new detached homes to commence construction," Nield said.

On the other hand, the multi-unit segment is expected to post a slump in construction starts over the next two years. The timing and speed of a recovery in overseas migration will play an important role in this segment.

"If overseas migration returns sooner, or faster, than anticipated, then the trough of new housing starts in 2023 will not be as deep as currently forecast. Equally, if the restrictions on skilled migration continue into 2022 the depth of the emerging slowdown in new detached starts will be exacerbated," Nield said.